37th EU PVSEC, 07 - 11 September 2020

Probabilistic PV Production Forecasts: Technics and Use-Cases

jointly with the International Energy Agency Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA PVPS) – IEA PVPS Task 16

Day: Wednesday, 11 September 2019IEA PVPS logo
Time: 13:30 - 15:00
Site: EU PVSEC at Marseille Chanot Convention and Exhibition Centre, Marseille, France
Room: Auditorium 5 Morgiou, first floor
Access: Open to all registered participants of the EU PVSEC 2019

The workshop will give an introduction into probabilistic forecasts for solar energy, shows some examples of existing forecasts and how to implement them.

Programme Outline

Chairs: Jan Remund, Meteotest and Nicolas Schmutz, Reuniwatt

Introduction to IEA PVPS Task 16
Jan Remund, OA PVPS Task 16 (Meteotest, CHE), 5 min

Introduction to the work regarding probabilistic forecast
Nicolas Schmutz, Reuniwatt, 5 min.

Verification of solar probabilistic forecasts
Philippe Lauret (Université La Réunion, FRA), 20 min

Hybrid PV-Diesel system: how probabilistic PV production forecast optimize genset controllers
Olivier Liandrat, (Reuniwatt, FRA), 12 min

Using the ECMWF IFS-ensemble for the energy management of a PV-battery system
Elke Lorenz (Fraunhofer ISE, GER), 12 min

Probabilistic forecast of solar radiation: Two meteorological and statistical approaches
Martin Gaston Romero (CENER, ESP), 12 min

Probabilistic Day-Ahead WRF-Solar Based Forecasting System
Manajit Sengupta (NREL, USA), 12 min

Questions & discussion